It will be seven years before the next U.S. Census compares Gilmer County’s population to what was measured in 2020, but recent high numbers for new 911 addresses and residential building permits offer some insight into the county’s growth.
In 2022, the Gilmer 911 addressing department added 654 new addresses to its GIS mapping system. The total number of new addresses added last year is slightly less than the total for 2021, when 709 new addresses were added to the 911 system.
“It’s been a pretty good bit more (than in previous years), which was definitely surprising,” said Capt. Frank Copeland, commander of the Gilmer Sheriff’s Office addressing division. “We were putting out a rough average of 70 addresses a month for part of ’21 and into ’22, then it started to kind of taper off toward the end of last year. That doesn’t mean there were 70 homes built, just that there were new addresses issued.”
Robbie Harbour, Gilmer 911’s GIS manager, said new addresses in the county started trending up shortly before the COVID-pandemic began in 2020. On average, they’ve remained high since then.
“Before we really got into what we consider booming, you could figure on anywhere from 30-35 new addresses a month. There would be a month or two here and there where there might be 40 or 45, but most of the time it would hang right around 30-35,” Harbour said.
Copeland said 911 addressing rarely gets a follow-up to let the department know that a home has been built on addressed property, but Harbour said most of the people the office deals with are pretty serious about building homes.
“I know there are some who back out, but I think most people who come in our office have good intentions about building houses. They know where they want the house to be. They’ve dealt with a contractor about the grading, and they know where they want the driveway to go,” he added. “We don’t address vacant property, so it has to have a driveway. If you’re going to build a house, we have you mark your driveway, then come in and fill out a form for us. Then we go out and address it. Within two weeks, you should be going to get your septic permit, then going to get your building permit.”
The number of subdivisions being built across the county has caused many of the new addresses to be generated, noted Copeland. Between the start of 2020 and the end of 2022, Gilmer Planning and Zoning approved different phases for more than 20 subdivisions. The biggest three developments — High River, The Vineyard at Yukon and Creekside Crossing — have had more than 1,100 lots approved between them, per planning and zoning data.
“I think the subdivisions have promoted a lot of (growth). People can buy these 2-3 acre lots and build versus buying a 5-acre tract. You’re talking about a lot less money at that point for the land,” Harbour said.
The county’s number of residential building permits was also up in 2022, with 425 issued by Gilmer Planning and Zoning. That’s slightly more than in 2021, when 406 residential building permits were issued. As for certificates of occupancy (COs), 385 were issued in 2022 and 244 in 2021.
The upward trend appears to be continuing into 2023 with both building permits and new addresses.
“We’ve done 16 residential permits for new homes so far (in January) and we’ve still got another week left,” said Karen Henson, Gilmer Planning and Zoning assistant director, last week.
Forty-nine new addresses have been issued since this year began, noted Harbour.
“Four years ago, we would’ve been lucky to do 20-25 in January,” he added.
Harbour said fewer addresses are usually issued in the winter months, mostly because of the weather, but higher interest rates have also factored in recently.
“Sometimes, people (get an address) and decide maybe it’s a bad time — like now, because of interest rates,” he added. “People who were planning on building six months ago may have gotten an address, but they don’t want to pay 8-9 percent interest, so they may wait a few months to see if it drops down. This month is starting to trend back up again with lumber prices coming down. I think spring is going to be pretty busy. The interest rates are going to (eventually) come back down, and building supplies are lower right now than they’ve been in a long time. If you get those two together, people are going to start building again.”
Ultimately, neither a new address, nor building permit and certificate of occupancy are 100 percent indicators of a fixed residency. The county still has a lot of part-time residents with second homes here, confirmed Harbour, and sometimes homes with COs will become short-term rentals, noted Henson.
According to the 2020 Census, Gilmer County’s estimated population was 31,353, an increase of 3,061 from the 2010 Census.
“Unless we have a depression or something like that, I think we’ll see a big increase in the next census,” said Harbour.
The Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget has projected a modest population increase for Gilmer County over the next several years. Using such data as historical fertility, migration and age, it projects the county’s population will reach 32,707 by 2030.